My research uses quantitative methods to study the politics of race, ethnicity, and gender in the U.S. context. Scroll down for more information about my publications and research agenda.
HE SAID WHAT?! GROUP THREAT AND EXPLICIT RACIAL RHETORIC IN AMERICAN POLITICS
Overt, explicit references to race and identity have started to rise in political discourse. Contextualizing this rise in the longstanding role that identity-based appeals have played in American politics, the book project that grows out of my dissertation explores the way that implicit and explicit group-based appeals are (and have been) used by elites, and the effects that these appeals have on political behavior. I adopt a group threat framework to argue that when a dominant group perceives greater threat to their status, they will be more likely to accept such appeals and allow them to cue identity-based considerations for use in their decision making processes. I use both survey experiments and analyses of political media to test my expectations. One of my dissertation chapters won the James W. Prothro Award for Outstanding Research from UNC's Department of Political Science in 2019.
Part of this project has recently been published:
When are explicit racial appeals accepted? Examining the role of racial status threat. Political Behavior.
Evidence has emerged demonstrating that whites no longer reject negative, explicit racial appeals as they had in the past. This seeming reversal of the traditional logic of the powerlessness of explicit appeals raises the question: Why are explicit racial appeals accepted sometimes but rejected at other times? Here, I test whether the relative acceptance of negative, explicit racial appeals depends on whites’ feelings of threat using a two-wave survey experiment that manipulates participants’ feelings of threat, and then examines their responses to an overtly racist political appeal. I find that when whites feel threatened, they are more willing to approve of and agree with a negative, explicit racial appeal disparaging African Americans—and express willingness to vote for the candidate who made the explicit racial appeal.[LINK]
IDENTITY-BASED PROFILING AND POLICING
To what extent does identity - broadly conceived - influence interactions with the police? I study the way that race, gender, age, and class play a role in concrete outcomes that individuals experience from their contact with law enforcement.
Better for everyone: Black descriptive representation and police traffic stops (with Frank R. Baumgartner, Derek A. Epp, Kevin Roach, and Kelsey Shoub). Politics, Groups, and Identities.
Racial disparities in citizen interactions with police are ubiquitous concerns in American communities. What difference does electoral representation make? We demonstrate that black descriptive representation in local government affects police activity and scrutiny in a given community. We use a new dataset comprised of over 79 municipal police departments spanning 6 states, based on tens of millions of individual-level traffic stops. In cities and towns with majority-black city councils, traffic stops are less likely to result in a search. This decline in search rates affects both white and black drivers, though the decline is larger for black drivers. Even after controlling for socioeconomic factors, segregation, and crime rates, descriptive representation still matters. A city council composed of a majority of black members is associated with important differences in policing, affecting both white and black residents. [LINK]
At the Intersection: Race, Gender, and Discretion in Police Traffic Stops (with Frank R. Baumgartner, Derek A. Epp, Kevin Roach, and Kelsey Shoub). The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics.
Racial disparities in traffic stop outcomes are widespread and well documented. Less well understood is how racial disparities may be amplified or muted in different contexts. Here we focus on one such situational factor: whether the initial traffic stop was related to a traffic safety violation or a (broadly defined) investigatory purpose. This is a salient contextual characteristic as stop type relates to different levels of assumed discretion and purpose. While all traffic stops involve some officer discretion, investigatory stops are more easily used as justifications to conduct a search based on an officer's diffuse suspicion; traffic safety stops are more often just what they seem. Using millions of traffic stops from several states, we show that black male drivers are more likely to be searched and less likely to be found with contraband and that this relationship is amplified where the initial stop purpose is investigatory. One implication of this is that one path to alleviating disparities in traffic stops for agencies is emphasizing traffic safety, rather than using stops as a supplemental investigatory tool. [LINK]
Race, Place, and Context: The Persistence of Race Effects in Traffic Stop Outcomes in the Face of Situational, Demographic, and Political Control (with Frank R. Baumgartner, Derek A. Epp, Kevin Roach, and Kelsey Shoub). The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics.
Evidence that racial minorities are targeted for searches during police traffic stops is widespread, but observed differences in outcomes following a traffic stop between white drivers and people of color could potentially be due to factors correlated with driver race. Using a unique dataset recording over 5 million traffic stops from 90 municipal police departments, we control for and evaluate alternative explanations for why a driver may be searched. These include: (1) the context of the stop itself, (2) the characteristics of the police department including the race of the police chief, and (3) demographic and racial composition of the municipality within which the stop occurs. We find that the driver’s race remains a robust predictor: black male drivers are consistently subjected to more intensive police scrutiny than white drivers. Additionally, we find that all drivers are less likely to be subject to highly discretionary searches if the police chief is black. Together, these findings indicate that race matters in multiple and varied ways for policing outcomes. [LINK]
Fines, Fees, Forfeitures, and Disparities: A Link Between Municipal Reliance on Fines and Racial Disparities in Policing (with Frank R. Baumgartner, Derek A. Epp, Kevin Roach, and Kelsey Shoub). Policy Studies Journal.
We investigate a possible linkage between municipal reliance on fines, fees, and forfeitures as a revenue source and policing behavior. With a dataset of four million traffic stops made by North Carolina municipalities, we demonstrate that a regular reliance on fines, fees, and forfeitures has powerful, predictable, and racially distinct impacts on black and white drivers, and that fiscal stress exacerbates these differences. A greater regular reliance on fines, fees, and forfeitures is linked to a decrease in the probability of white, but not black, drivers being searched; and increased odds of finding contraband among those white drivers who are searched, but no such change for black drivers. We validate the North Carolina tests with aggregate analyses of municipalities across four states. [LINK]
Intersectional Stereotyping in Policing: An Analysis of Traffic Stop Outcomes. Politics, Groups, and Identities.
Identity-based stereotyping often operates on perceptions about the intersection of multiple identities. Intersectional stereotyping predicts that certain combinations of attributes lend themselves more readily to perceived suspicion than others. In this paper, I test the way that suspicion-evoking stereotypes affect police-citizen interactions. Through the use of traffic stop data from Illinois spanning ten years and amounting to more than 20 million observations, I am able to produce accurate estimates for the relative degree of targeting that individual drivers face based on their racial, gender, age, and class-based perceived identities. Overall, I find both theoretical and methodological support for the necessity of intersectional analyses of identity-based profiling. [LINK]
Racial Disparities in Traffic Stop Outcomes. (with Frank R. Baumgartner, Derek A. Epp, Kevin Roach, and Kelsey Shoub). Duke Forum for Law and Social Change.
In this paper, we document the ubiquity of substantial racial disparities in the odds of adverse outcomes stemming from routine traffic stops. We do so with the largest database yet compiled of this most common form of citizen-police interaction. We show that it occurs in every state where we can find data, that it affects Black as well as Hispanic drivers, that the effects are very large, and that the simple bivariate comparisons are consistent with more sophisticated and demanding multivariate statistical tests. Racial disparities in traffic stops are large, ubiquitous across the nation, and troubling. [LINK]
Cited in Oregon State v. Arreola-Botello (365 OR 695 (2019))